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Green Energy Developments – Recent Links to Interesting Articles

June 25th, 2009 Bruce No comments

Wind Energy Primer Links

Wind Energy Basics
http://windeis.anl.gov/guide/basics/index.cfm

Wind Energy Resource Map – U. S.
http://windeis.anl.gov/guide/maps/map2.html

Wind Energy Atlas of the United States
http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/atlas_index.html

Wind to Hydrogen Research Project
http://www.nrel.gov/hydrogen/proj_wind_hydrogen.html

Wind Energy for Water Applications
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/water_applications.html

Wind Energy for Thermoelectric Generation Water Supply
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/thermoelectric_generation_water_supply.html

Small Wind Systems to Power Your Home
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/small_wind_system_faqs.html

Wind Energy Links
http://windeis.anl.gov/guide/links/index.cfm

Smart Grid Articles
http://www.matternetwork.com/2009/6/duke-energy-cisco-partner-smart.cfm
http://www.energy.gov/news2009/7408.htm

Major CCS Funding by DOE
http://www.energy.gov/news2009/7405.htm

CCS Texas-Louisiana Pipeline
http://www.theadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2009905290305

CCS Project in the UK
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/8072583.stm

CCS Demonstration Plant Largest in World in Louisiana
http://blog.al.com/live/2009/05/barry_power_plant_to_pump_gree.html

The Software Business of Tracking Carbon
http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/31/tracking-carbon-emissions-technology-enterprise-cap-and-trade.html?feed=rss_business_energy

Mini Nuclear Reactors
http://www.salon.com/wires/ap/business/2009/06/10/D98O0SMO0_us_new_reactor/

Duke to Shift Away from Coal Plants to Nuclear Due to Cost of CCS Regulations
http://communitypress.cincinnati.com/article/AB/20090526/BIZ01/305260027/Duke+plans+nuclear+shift

Solar Power Developments
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/brightsource-pge-sign-1.31gw-deal-in-california/
http://seekingalpha.com/article/139369-lockheed-martin-starwood-to-build-290mw-solar-thermal-plant-in-arizona?source=feed
http://www.kvoa.com/global/story.asp?s=10410225

Financing Green Energy Projects
http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/08/solar-wind-green-business-energy-banks.html?feed=rss_business_energy

Web Sites/Video Presentations

Evnviro Know – The Politics of Sustainability
http://ow.ly/15FX0D

E&E TV – Numerous Videos and an Archive on Current Energy and Political Topics
http://www.eenews.net/tv/video_guide/

Twitter Links

June 25th, 2009 Bruce No comments

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    Categories: Current Thoughts Tags:

    Competitive Pricing Options for Natural Gas Pipeline Projects

    June 7th, 2009 Bruce No comments

    Click this link to my article on the options available to natural gas pipeline developers for creative pricing of their projects to make them successful. I have surveyed the actual practices that are being used in the industry for one of my clients. If you would like more information, please contact me.

    Categories: Bruce's Business Tips Tags:

    The Financial Characteristics of the Energy Industry

    June 7th, 2009 Bruce No comments

    The energy industry includes companies that invest in extremely capital intensive and technologically sophisticated energy projects. These projects develop, transport, process, market, refine and/or deliver natural gas, electricity and petroleum products to the consumer.

    To promote national energy independence, environmental responsibility and market forces (or proxies for market forces) within in the industry, Federal and state governments regulate portions of the industry. They provide economic incentives, such as accelerated income tax depreciation methods and various tax credits to businesses and consumers. The Federal government, through the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (“FERC”), regulates oil pipelines, natural gas pipelines and the interstate transmission of electricity. In many instances Federal authority must be sought prior to building energy infrastructure or abandoning service, or to receive approval for operating terms and conditions. The FERC regulates accounting and the prices (i.e., rates) for the services falling within its jurisdiction. In some contexts prices are established through cost-based rate principles determined in rate cases while in other instances regulated ceiling prices are adjusted through price indices, price discounts or negotiated prices.

    Some of the businesses within the energy industry are not price regulated. Examples include petroleum production, natural gas production and energy commodity marketing. Prior commodity price regulation (such as for natural gas commodities) was removed in the 1970s through 1990s through initiatives referred to in the industry as deregulation or “unbundling”. In truth, these changes established new forms of regulation in an attempt to better simulate the benefits of an effective market while constraining perceived monopoly power of transporters. In this process, transportation services were unbundled from sales services. Now large end-use energy customers may purchase energy commodities directly from producers, rather than buying the commodities from the company that transported the commodity to the market.

    Natural gas and electricity distribution services are generally regulated at the state level. Such services are provided by a utility that has a monopoly in its state-approved franchise service territory. State regulation often parallels Federal rules, though the mechanics of regulation varies. State-regulated energy utilities are heavily regulated regarding service expansion and termination, rate regulation, energy development plans, conservation programs and other matters.

    To prepare financial models of development or expansion projects within the energy industry, care must be taken to include, where applicable, the potential impact of price-regulation on projected revenues, as well as the projected impacts of competitive forces. Energy commodity prices are extremely volatile. Such commodities are traded through well developed markets, such as the NYMEX futures market and at natural gas trading hubs. Therefore, where applicable, the industry employs financial hedges as a means of controlling risk. Asset values for existing and planned projects are affected by energy commodity price changes and economic conditions generally. Scarce and depleting energy resource values reflect petroleum engineers’ reserve estimates and the changing costs of development, transportation and production. Electricity prices reflect a host of complex factors such as consumer demand changes, the ability or inability to wheel (transport) electricity between regional markets, the reliability of facilities and natural forces, such as storm activity.

    The cost of operating an energy project reflects the cost of the installed facilities, their (typically long-term) depreciation schedules (both tax and book), costs of operation and the weighted average cost of capital employed. The industry employs a variety of financing techniques, and a sound financial structure is extremely important to project success due to the capital intensive nature of the industry. Controlling risk is extremely important to the industry due to the many years that elapse between the installation of facilities and the recovery of all costs related to those facilities.

    Categories: Energy Industry Background Tags:

    The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model and its Use in the Energy Industry

    June 7th, 2009 Bruce No comments

    The energy industry includes companies that are price regulated using cost of service principles. One of the most important cost elements is the cost of common equity. In a landmark Supreme Court case decided many years ago, referred to commonly as the Hope case, the Supreme Court decided that regulated utilities must be compensated for the cost of capital used to finance operations, including the costs of capital associated with equity-financed investments.

    Regulatory agencies over time have used four principal techniques to estimate the cost of common equity, including 1) the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) method, 2) a risk premium method wherein an equity risk premium is added to the current market cost of utility debt, 3) a comparable earnings approach that estimates the equity return of the utility on returns associated with alternative investments, and 4) the DCF method. Estimating the cost of common equity is almost always contentious in rate case litigation and an army of experts specializes in testifying on this issue.

    The most commonly accepted method today is the DCF method. The form of this model most commonly employed in regulatory proceedings is as follow:

    K=D/P + G, where

    K = the cost of equity capital
    D = the expected current future annual amount of dividends per share (look at the recent quarterly dividend history and increase the last annual dividend total if the company has a trend of increasing its dividends)
    G = the expected dividend per share growth rate (%), commonly estimated using expected earnings per share growth rates based on analyst consensus estimates (see www.finance.yahoo.com for such estimates)
    P = the current stock price (usually averaged over a recent historical period, such as the last quarter or six months)

    Typically, the cost of common equity for a particular utility is not based on its own cost factors, but is based on the mean or median of a group of at least 4 proxy companies that are similar to the utility. Determining the appropriate proxy group for the utility is often a contentious issue, particularly since there are not many “pure” utility holding companies whose stock trades on the public securities markets. So instead, analysts choose companies whose portfolio includes a substantial portion of investments that are similar to the utility 1/.

    The value for G is often contentious since regulators may view analysts’ high projected growth rates with suspicion, tending to believe that a company’s earnings will not grow faster than the general economy over the long-run. So in some jurisdictions, such as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, a weighted average growth rate is used. This includes the consensus short-term growth rate and a long-term growth rate, such as growth in GDP (gross domestic product) as estimated by private sources and the Social Security Administration.

    The assumptions underlying the DCF model include the following items:

    • Investors evaluate common stocks in a valuation framework and trade rationally.
    • Investors discount expected cash flows at the same discount rate in every future period.
    • Dividends alone (rather than earnings) are the source of common stock value
    • The stock for which the DCF model is employed must not be a “growth” stock because K must exceed G.
    • The dividend growth rate is constant in every future year and investors require the same future return in each future year.
    • All financing of the enterprise is expected to be from the retention of earnings.
    _________
    1/ For an example of the importance of determining an appropriate proxy group, see the discussion by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in Opinion 396-B (Kern River Gas Transmission Company).

    Categories: Energy Industry Background Tags:

    Rate Base, Cost of Service and Revenue Determination For Regulated Energy Projects

    June 7th, 2009 Bruce No comments

    Rate Base, Cost of Service and Revenue Determination

    The energy industry includes companies that are price regulated using cost of service principles. For those companies one of the most important cost elements is the cost of common equity. Cost of service, or the revenue requirement of the utility, includes the following items:

    • Operating Expenses
    o Operations and Maintenance Expenses
    o Administrative and General Expense
    • Taxes, Other than Income (Property Tax, Franchise Taxes, Payroll Taxes)
    • Income Taxes
    • Return on Rate Base (Weighted Average Cost of Capital Times Rate Base)
    • Other Operating Expenses (Such as Regulatory Debits and Credits)
    • Depreciation and Amortization Expense
    • Less- Incidental Revenues (i.e. rents of utility property)

    To calculate the return on rate base, it is necessary to first calculate rate base. This item represents the net current investment in utility facilities that has been financed by investors. Rate base includes:

    • Gross Utility Plant (excluding work in progress)
    • Less – Accumulated Depreciation and Amortization
    • Less – Accumulated Deferred Income Taxes
    • Plus –
    o Prepayments (such as prepaid insurance)
    o Materials and Supplies Inventories

    The weighted average cost of capital includes: (1) the sum of the cost of debt multiplied by the percentage of the total capital structure that is financed by debt, and (2) the cost of each source of equity financing multiplied by the percentage of the total capital structure that is financed by each equity source. Once the weighted cost of each financing source is calculated, the costs of all the financing sources are summed to derive the total weighted average cost of capital.

    The calculation of the income tax allowance for cost of service deserves some further explanation. To calculate this amount, it is necessary to calculate the projected return on equity dollars by multiplying rate base times the weighted average return on equity as explained in the preceding paragraph. To derive the income tax allowance, first divide the amount of the return on equity dollars by 1 less the company’s composite federal and state income tax rate. This will result in the amount of state taxable income. Then multiply the state taxable income by the state income tax rate to derive the state income tax amount. Then subtract the state income tax from the state taxable income to derive the Federal taxable income. Then multiply Federal taxable income times the Federal income tax rate to derive the Federal income tax. Then you can sum the state and Federal amounts to derive the total Federal and state income tax allowance. Attached is an example of these calculations, assuming the state tax rate is 5% and the Federal rate is 35% for a composite or total income tax rate of 38.25%. Rate base is assumed to be $1,000.000, and the weighted return on equity rate is assumed to be 6%, assuming rate base is 50% financed by equity and the return on equity cost rate is 12%.

    See “Income Tax Allowance Example Computation” for an example.

    Categories: Energy Industry Background Tags:

    Obama Administration Proposes Changes to Industry Priorities

    June 7th, 2009 Bruce No comments

    Obama Administration Proposes Changes to Energy Priorities and Taxes As Reflected in the Recent Budget Proposal and Economic Stimulus Package:

    Summary of Proposed Tax Changes As Reflected in Obama Administration 2009 Budget Proposal

    • 1. Proposals to eliminate “oil and gas company preferences” worth $31.48 billion over 10 years
      • a. Expensing of intangible drilling costs
      • b. Repeal of the manufacturers’ tax deduction for oil and gas companies ($13.29 billion over 10 years)
      • c. Repeal of the percentage depletion allowance, important to small independent producers ($8.25 billion over 10 years)
      • d. Repeal of the enhanced oil recovery credit
      • e. Repeal of the marginal well tax credit
      • f. Repeal of the deduction for tertiary injectants
      • g. Repeal of the passive loss exception for working interests in oil and gas properties
    • 2. Proposals to increase taxes on oil and gas
      • a. Excise tax on Gulf of Mexico production ($5.28 billion over 10 years)
      • b. Reduction to Gulf of Mexico royalty relief beginning in 2011 (related to an apparent government error to not include a provision in leases that would raise royalty payments in times of high oil prices).
      • c. A new 13 percent tax on all oil and gas production in the Gulf would affect companies not currently paying any royalties due to a “loophole”.
      • d. Increase the geological and geophysical amortization period for independent producers from 5 to 7 years ($1.19 billion over 10 years), reversing a provision in the 2005 Energy Policy Act
      • e. Reinstate the “Superfund” tax on refiners and petrochemical manufacturers (projected taxes of $1.2 billion in 2011, phasing to $2.3 billion in 2019 and totaling $17.2 billion in 2011-190)
    • 3. Proposals to increase fees on producers
      • a. Charges to producers for user fees for processing permits to drill on Federal lands
      • b. Increases to “reform royalties and adjust rates”
      • c. Imposing a new fee, $4 per acre, on nonproducing Gulf leases that would raise $1.2 billion over ten years

    Summary of Proposed Changes in Energy Policy Priorities

    • 1. $19 million in the EPA budget to be used to upgrade greenhouse gas reporting measures.
    • 2. Elaborate carbon “cap and trade” program to put a price(tax) on emitting pollution
      • a. Starting in 2012 the government would sell pollution permits, generating a projected $646 billion of revenue through 2019, or $78.7 billion per year starting in 2012.
      • b. The number of available permits would gradually decline, forcing businesses to buy increasingly scarce and costly rights on an open equities-style market.
      • c. The Administration hopes this will encourage businesses to invest in clean technologies as a cheaper alternative.
      • d. The goal is to double renewable energy production in three years and to have 10 percent of electricity generated from clean energy by 2012. Along with this the goal is to cut greenhouse gas production 14% below 2005 levels by 2020 and 83 percent by 2050.
      • e. The initial estimated carbon credit price is about $20 per ton.
      • f. Of the $646 billion, $120 billion, or $15 billion per year, would be invested in low carbon technologies starting in 2012.
      • g. The remainder of the $646 billion would be directed to disadvantaged communities and businesses to “help the transition to a clean energy economy.” The plan aims to help finance Obama’s tax credit for workers and to help with clean-up costs for small businesses.
      • h. The CBO estimates the revenue generated from a cap and trade system could ultimately range from $50 billion to $300 billion per year.
    • 3. The Administration rejected permitting nuclear waste to be stored at Yucca Mountain in Nevada, after 20 years of plans and a cost of $9 billion.
    • 4. The budget would end federal funding for ultra-deepwater oil and gas research and development.

    Fifty Percent Business Bonus Depreciation Extended Through 2009
    The 50 percent bonus tax depreciation provision included in the 2008 economic stimulus legislation was extended in the most recent economic stimulus package for expenditures made during 2009. The estimated cost of the extension was $5.07 billion over 10 years.

    DOE Announces Changes to Expedite Funding Under the Economic Recovery Act

    FAQS About ARRA 2009

    Transition Help for Office 2007

    June 7th, 2009 Bruce No comments

    Here is a link I found that will help smooth your transition to Microsoft Office 2007. The get started tabs for Excel, Word and PowerPoint provide a number of resources to help unlock the power of the software. http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/help/HA102146851033.aspx

    Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Pipelines Provide New Business Opportunities to Gas Pipeline Developers

    June 7th, 2009 Bruce No comments

    Natural gas pipeline developers should be encouraged to facilitate the development of an interstate CCS pipeline transportation market. The pipelines have the skills and resources needed to provide this infrastructure within our economy. Within the United States somewhere between 3,000 to 4,000 miles of CCS pipelines have been developed over the past 30 years to transport CO2 for enhanced oil recovery. Given the emerging energy policies of the Obama Administration, a much expanded role for CCS pipelines lies in our future.

    Pipelines can be built in three basic configurations to deliver CO2 to a “sink” area for injection into a salt cavern, depleted oil/gas field or non-mineable coal seam formation. The associated electric or natural gas power plant(s) that are the carbon source can be built directly over the “sink,” a single line can be built from the electric plant to the “sink” formation, or a network of CO2 pipelines can be built to transport the gas to the underground formations. Since some electric plants, such as peaking plants, do not run continuously, a network configuration may be favored to improve the load factor, and thereby the economics of the pipelines. Obviously, if the electric plant is located directly over the “sink” formation, the pipeline would be very short in length and would not be a major economic consideration. If the carbon capture site configuration and an available “sink” formation were relatively close to each other, single lines will likely evolve whose depreciable life would be tied to the physical and economic life of the power plant. A less extensive CO2 transportation network may evolve regionally in circumstances where power plant “farms” might be constructed due to favorable access to the electric grid, adequate water, and economic coal (including rail transport) or other fuel sources at a particular location. The evolution of a more extensive CO2 interstate transportation network might be more remote in its potential to evolve, and probably would be the last considered option if economics are permitted to prevail, even though improving the scale and volume of CO2 transportation would improve pipeline economics. Another factor that would play into economic evaluations will be the cost of and timing considerations associated with transporting energy by wire.

    Before the market-place recognizes an extensive need for CO2 transportation facilities, a number of developments will need to occur. A carbon cap-and-trade law would improve the economics of carbon capture and sequestration facilities, such as those associated with coal power plants. CCS facilities increase the cost of delivered power substantially. Today, renewable electric generation options, such as wind or solar panels, appear be the preferred energy source alternatives by state regulators and national political leaders. Natural gas power plants also seem to be preferred over coal plants, even with potential CCS facilities, due to their relatively low capital cost requirements, shorter construction windows, and with more clarity today that significant additional gas supplies are available from non-conventional gas fields, such as the Barnett Shale fields of North Texas.

    CO2 pipeline development requires an environment where CO2 is viewed by policy makers and the public as a commodity (rather than hazardous material) that can and should be safely transported and stored without significant leakage. This will require the evolution of several technologies and safety legislation, eminent domain transportation rights and clarity of CO2 environmental policies. Clarification of CO2 as a commodity, rather than a hazardous material, would facilitate transportation to remote storage sites and sequestration in applications where some economic benefit besides disposal can be realized, such as is currently the case with enhanced oil recovery. Thus, a number of important policy and legal matters need to be resolved before power plant developers and pipeline proponents will get a clear economic signal that an extensive CO2 transportation grid should be constructed.

    Development of a pipeline network depends on the ability of electric distribution companies to pay for the facilities. Current state regulatory procurement processes that evaluate the best power source options will remain in place, and a power plant with CCS must be a best, or at least an acceptable, alternative to others in that planning process. The economics in part will depend on the cost of purchasing emissions credits as an alternative to CCS-related facilities once the cap-and-trade market fully evolves. Whether the CO2 transportation facilities are price-regulated or not is important, but not really the central question because the costs of transportation can be recovered by the pipeline developer if a contract with a credit-worthy electric LDC is in place. However, if CO2 transportation facilities were price-regulated, such as is the case today with interstate natural gas transportation facilities, this may help smooth approvals in the state-regulated energy procurement approval processes. Therefore, a jurisdictional transportation scheme would be likely more successful in its evolution. However, in the alternative policy makers could permit market-based or negotiated price options to evolve assuming a demonstrably competitive market for energy supply options.

    CO2 pipelines are physically very similar to natural gas pipelines in almost all important respects. The pipeline and compression (or pumping) facilities can be built using transferrable, well-developed technology for similar costs per mile, though CO2 pipelines would likely more often be high pressure lines that is the case today for natural gas pipelines. CO2 pipelines would have electric compression or pumping facilities, rather than gas-fired compression which is more typical in the current interstate gas pipeline transportation network. CO2 pipelines do not corrode faster than natural gas pipelines as long as contaminants are controlled; thus, they do not inherently depreciate faster or slower than natural gas transportation facilities. Due to these factors, improving the cost of CO2 transportation would depend most importantly on government economic policies, such as the tax depreciable life, whether investment tax credits would be available and regulatory depreciation policies, such as the possible ability to defer depreciation until the full transportation demands evolve. Given favorable regulatory and tax policies, the facility costs could be recovered with a favorable depreciation scheme, such as levelized depreciation, and with the economics of tax incentives being transferred from the government to consumers. If the CO2 pipelines are non-price regulated facilities, the recovery of costs is simply a matter of negotiation between the electric LDC and the pipeline developer, a matter which is already well evolved for similar natural gas pipelines.

    The circumstances that will drive the evolution of an extensive CO2 network are tied to technological developments and to large scale policy initiatives to sort out national energy source priorities.

    I believe those interested in promoting CCS pipeline development should promote the following policies:

    · CCS transportation as transportation of a commodity rather than as a hazardous material

    · Eminent domain rights and certification of CCS transportation facilities

    · Jurisdictional status and price regulation of interstate CCS transportation facilities with market-based pricing exceptions permitted for demonstrably competitive markets

    · Economic incentives, such as favorable income tax treatment and innovative rate strategies, including negotiated rates and capacity release trading on CCS pipelines

    Bruce E. Warner, CPA, CDP, CSS

    March 2009

    Author’s note: For more information on this topic, see the excellent article: “Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Pipelines for Carbon Sequestration: Emerging Policy Issues” by Paul W. Parfomak and Peter Folger”

    Categories: Energy Industry Developments Tags:

    What is a Certification in Financial Forensics (CFF)?

    June 7th, 2009 Bruce No comments

    The American Institute of CPAs created the CFF credential in 2008 to recognize the professional skill, training and experience of individuals who specialize in financial forensics services. Bruce E. Warner, CPA, became certified in financial forensics in 2008 and provides several CFF services to the energy industry. Bruce practices in the areas of bankruptcy and insolvency, economic damages, litigation support and stakeholder disputes.